Israelis went to the polls on October 27 expecting a choice about the country’s direction after years of war and political division. The vote has delivered a more complicated answer: no side has an obvious path to governing.
The key to understanding the result is that Israelis do not directly elect their prime minister. They vote for parties, which win seats in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. A government needs the backing of at least 61 members. The largest party does not automatically get to govern; its leader must persuade enough parties to join or support a coalition.
As the count neared completion on Thursday, October 29, projections put Netanyahu’s bloc at about 53 seats, opposition parties at 48, and Arab-led parties at 19. Likud, Netanyahu’s party, appears to have come first among individual parties. But “coming first” is not the same as having a majority. The numbers leave both camps negotiating—and neither with an easy route to 61. AP’s latest results and reporting, Times of Israel live results Why Netanyahu may stay on Netanyahu has governed for much of the past two decades, but this election appears to have cost his coalition support. His main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, is a former military chief leading a diverse group of parties united largely by their desire to replace Netanyahu. They disagree on plenty else.
That is the opposition’s central problem: even if its parties can agree that they want a change of prime minister, they still need to agree on a government—and secure enough votes to form one. A partnership with Arab-led parties could give them a path, but would be politically difficult. Some opposition parties have ruled out relying on those parties, while others have signalled more openness.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, remains prime minister while the next government is worked out. He can try to persuade rivals or smaller parties to join him. If no one can assemble a government after the available attempts, Israel could face another election. AP’s explainer on the possible outcomes Arab-led parties are pivotal—and under scrutiny Arab citizens make up about one-fifth of Israel’s population and can vote and serve in parliament. Arab-led parties appear to have won a historic number of seats, making them harder for either camp to ignore. Their voters’ participation is part of the election result; it does not, by itself, show that anything improper happened.
That distinction matters because claims of foreign interference have become part of the post-election dispute. The Central Elections Committee asked Israel’s Shin Bet security service to investigate suspicions of outside influence. Details remain limited. Netanyahu’s Likud called the election “stolen,” but AP reported that the party had not provided evidence for that claim. The committee’s acting director-general said there was no known basis for claims of systematic violations, and the committee chief said widespread-fraud claims appeared baseless. The investigation is still a separate matter from the vote count and coalition negotiations. AP’s reporting on the allegations, Times of Israel’s live coverage What voters were deciding This is Israel’s first national election since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack and the wars that followed. Voters faced questions about security and the government’s handling of the attack and its aftermath, as well as the military-service exemption for many ultra-Orthodox men—a divisive issue when many Israeli families have been affected by years of fighting. The country’s international standing and treatment of Palestinians have also been prominent points of dispute. AP’s election takeaways
So, in plain terms: Netanyahu’s side appears short of a majority, but his opponents have not yet shown they can build one either. The seat count tells us who has leverage; the negotiations will determine who governs. Until those talks conclude, Israel has an election result without a settled political outcome.