For years, Texas has been a tantalizing but elusive target for Democrats. Now, on the eve of Election Day, Democrat James Talarico is running neck and neck with Republican Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat. Talarico’s lead in the polling averages is modest, but a late New York Times/Siena poll put him seven points ahead. That makes the race genuinely competitive; it does not make Texas a Democratic state. Polling averages and Texas race forecast, AP’s Election Day preview
Who is James Talarico? Talarico is a former public school teacher and a state representative for North Austin and surrounding areas. First elected to the Texas House in 2018, he built a profile as a forceful speaker, using his Christian faith to argue for progressive causes and against policies such as school vouchers and displays of the Ten Commandments in classrooms. His campaign casts him as a populist willing to take on wealthy donors and powerful interests, while reaching out to voters beyond the Democratic base. Texas House biography, Texas Tribune profile
That combination of faith and economic populism is central to his strategy. Talarico presents himself as a Christian Democrat who can contest the religious language Texas Republicans often use, while centering economic fairness and working families. It may help him connect with voters who are dissatisfied with Republicans but don’t identify with the national Democratic brand. It also gives Republicans a target: they argue that his policies are too progressive for Texas, and some conservative religious leaders have challenged his interpretation of Christianity. Texas Tribune on Talarico’s faith and campaign
The political test is whether his personal appeal can travel beyond the voters who already support Democrats. Talarico has drawn large crowds and raised extraordinary sums: by mid-October, he had reported more than $146 million, far more than Paxton’s reported $22.3 million at that point. Money can buy reach and organizing, but it cannot by itself solve the challenge of winning in a state that voted Republican by a wide margin in 2024. AP’s Election Day preview
Who is Ken Paxton? Paxton has been Texas attorney general since 2015. Before that, he served in the Texas House and Senate. He is a prominent conservative and an ally of Trump, with a political identity built around challenging federal authority and defending conservative causes. His statewide wins show that he can mobilize a large Republican electorate. Texas Attorney General’s official biography
He also brings a record that Democrats hope will trouble moderate voters and Republicans who want a less controversial nominee. Paxton faced criminal securities-fraud charges for years; in 2024, he agreed to a settlement requiring restitution, without admitting guilt. In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas Senate acquitted him after the state House impeached him over allegations of misconduct and abuse of office. The allegations, acquittal and settlement are part of the public record, but none has prevented him from winning strong support among conservative voters. AP’s report on Paxton’s record and Senate campaign, Texas Tribune’s summary of his legal and political controversies
Paxton’s nomination followed a bruising Republican contest. Trump backed him in the runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, and Paxton ultimately became the Republican nominee. That victory secured the support of the party’s most loyal Trump voters, but it may have left some Republicans uncomfortable with his candidacy. The open question is whether those voters will still vote for him, vote for Talarico, or skip the Senate race.
What the polls say—and what they don’t: Talarico’s edge is real, but small. One poll average puts him ahead by about three to four points; another, which gives recent surveys greater weight, has him closer to Paxton. The Times/Siena survey showing Talarico up seven is a notable result, but it sits alongside other polling showing a much tighter race. That spread is a sign of uncertainty about the electorate—not proof that one side has already won. Call the Map polling and forecast, 270toWin’s Texas Senate poll tracker
The broader environment favours Democrats: national polling shows them ahead on the generic congressional ballot, and Trump’s approval is weak. Yet Texas has recently continued to vote Republican even as Democrats have made statewide contests competitive. Talarico must turn dissatisfaction with the national Republican Party into enough votes in Texas—a state with a large Republican base and significant regional differences.
Turnout and ticket splitting could be decisive. Texas reporters are watching whether Democratic turnout rises in major urban areas, whether Latino voters shift back toward Democrats, and whether some Republicans leave the Senate line blank because of Paxton. Early voting was high, but turnout totals alone do not reveal which candidate benefited. Texas Tribune’s guide to the key election-night indicators, Axios on Texas early voting
The race in perspective: Talarico’s path is to make the election a choice between a fresh, approachable Democrat and a Republican nominee whose controversies could alienate voters outside the party’s core. His biography, communication style and fundraising give him a serious opportunity to compete. But his campaign still has to overcome Texas’s partisan baseline and convince enough voters that he can represent the whole state.
Paxton’s path is different: consolidate Republicans, benefit from Trump’s support, and make the contest a referendum on whether Talarico’s policies are too liberal for Texas. His experience and conservative base give him a strong foundation. His challenge is that some voters may see his legal and political record as a reason to reject him, even if they generally prefer Republicans.
Talarico is slightly favoured by several polling measures, but the race remains a toss-up in practical terms. If he wins, it would be a historic breakthrough for Texas Democrats and a major blow to Republican hopes of holding the Senate. If Paxton wins, it would show that the state’s Republican lean—and Trump’s ability to mobilize that coalition—remains stronger than the Democrats’ current momentum.